Thursday, August 13, 2009

DETAILS ABOUT CURRENCY XCHANGE


Forex of FX or Foreign Exchange (Currency) market is the largest liquid financial market around the world. Here currency of a single country is exchanged with a different country through currency exchange rate scheme. Moreover it provides trading between central banks, large banks, currency speculators, government, multination corporations and many other financial institutes and markets. Trader’s or broker’s purpose is to get the revenue by the foreign exchanges buy and sale. From the latest estimation, FOREX trading average daily constitution is about 4 trillion US dollar.

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Forex for Dummies: Trading characteristics

Most traded currencies Currency distribution of reported FX market turnover

Most traded currencies Currency distribution of reported FX market turnover

There is no unified or centrally cleared market for the majority of FX trades, and there is very little cross-border regulation. Due to the over-the-counter (OTC) nature of currency markets, there are rather a number of interconnected marketplaces, where different currencies instruments are traded. This implies that there is not a single exchange rate but rather a number of different rates (prices), depending on what bank or market maker is trading, and where it is. In practice the rates are often very close, otherwise they could be exploited by arbitrageurs instantaneously. Due to London’s dominance in the market, a particular currency’s quoted price is usually the London market price. A joint venture of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Reuters, called Fxmarketspace opened in 2007 and aspired but failed to the role of a central market clearing mechanism.

Intro to Forex Currency Trading

Forex, which is short for Foreign Exchange, is another term for currency trading. The goal of forex is try to profit by trading the ever-changing currency exchange rates, such as the Euro versus the U.S. Dollar.

foreign_exchange_rate_vtExchange Rate Example
One of the most popular currency pairs is the EUR/USD, which tracks the Euro against the U.S. Dollar. If the EUR/USD is at 1.5000, that means one Euro will get you 1.5000 U.S. Dollars. One thing that’s interesting about these exchange rates is that they are relative to two countries. If the Euro gets “stronger”, the rate goes up to 1.5785, for example, because you can buy more Dollars. If the Dollar gets stronger, the rate will drop because the Euro will buy fewer Dollars. However, if both the Euro and the Dollar get stronger (or weaker) by the same amount, the rate won’t really change!

Similar to Stock Trading
Currency trading actually has many similarities to stock trading. Many people are familiar with how stock trading works: find a price quote for a company using its symbol, then buy that symbol at a low price and sell it later at a higher price hopefully. Forex is actually very similar: get a quote for a symbol like EUR/USD, buy it at a lower rate like 1.4000 and then sell it at a higher rate like 1.4050.

Meet the Pip
Since the exchange rates change by such a small percentage, a term called the pip is used to describe changes in rates or profits. For example, if the GBP/CHF (British Pound versus Swiss Franc) goes from 1.7000 to 1.7001, it has increased by 1 pip, and an increase to 1.7100 would be 100 pips because for this pair one pip is 0.0001. However, for a rate like 95.00 for the USD/JPY, the pip represents 0.01, so 95.01 would be a 1-pip gain while 96.00 would be a 100-pip gain. This just describes the rate differences. To calculate your dollar gains, you need to factor in the lot size (see below).

The Spread instead of a Commission
Forex brokers make their profits not by charging a commission on each trade but by creating a small difference between the Bid (Sell) and Ask (Buy) prices. This is called the Spread and it is measured in pips. A typical spread might be between 1 and 10 pips. So if you bought and then sold right away, you would actually lose money by the amount of the spread. For example, buying EUR/USD at 1.5000 (the Ask) and selling at 1.4995 (the Bid) would be a loss of 5 pips.

Lots of Lots
Stock trading involves buying shares but forex trading involves buying lots. Depending on the account type, the lot size will be something like 1K, 10K, or 100K. Assuming your account has a 10K (10,000) lot size and you buy 8 lots, that would be a total contract size of 80K. It is important to realize that you must place your trades in increments of the lot size.

Margin and Leverage
Since currency rates change by such small amounts at a time, most forex brokers offer a large amount of leverage, such as 200 to 1. That means you only use $1 of your actual cash for every $200 of a currency pair that you purchase. For example, if you buy 10K of EUR/USD at 200:1 leverage, that would only require $50 of cash because 10,000 divided by 200 is 50. The purpose of the leverage is to amplify your profits but keep in mind it can just as easily amplify your losses. Many, many traders have lost all of their trading money because of leverage, so be careful!

Practice Trading
Many forex websites offer free demo programs that allow you to practice trading with virtual money, often for a limited time. Practicing with these demo programs is highly, highly recommended until you become comfortable with the trading process and the dangers of leverage.

Nicholas Swezey recently added real time forex quotes to his site HowTheMarketWorks.com.

Sources: articlespan.com

You might like these articles:

  1. Currency Trading Report – What You Need To Know
  2. Trading in the Retail Off-Exchange Foreign Currency Market – What Investors Need to Know
  3. Trading in the Retail Off-Exchange Foreign Currency Market – What Investors Need to Know
  4. Forex Trading – What Goes Into Currency Trading Values?
  5. U.S. Dollar Inches Up Against Euro in Forex Trading

Forex - Foreign Exchange

Currency Markets

Foreign exchange transactions that are settled immediately are said to occur in the spot market, while transactions to be settled at a future date occur in either the forward or the futures market.

These markets are summarized below:

1. Spot Market:

This is the market for currencies for immediate delivery. The price of foreign exchange in the spot market is referred to as the spot exchange rate or simply the spot rate.

Investment Guide and Forex Trading

The spot FX market is unique to any other market in the world, as trading is available 24 hours a day.

Somewhere around the world, a financial center is open for business, where banks and other institutions exchange currencies, every hour of the day and night with generally only minor gaps on the weekend.

Essentially foreign exchange markets follow the sun around the world, giving traders the flexibility of determining their very own trading time.

2. Forward Market:

This market is for the exchange of foreign currencies at a future date. A forward contract usually represents a contract between a large money center bank and a well-known (to the bank) customer having a well-defined need to hedge exposure to fluctuations in exchange rates.

Although forward contracts usually call for the exchange to occur in either 30, 90 or 180 days, the contract can be customized to call for the exchange of any desired quantity of currency at any future date acceptable to both parties to the contract.

The price of foreign currency for future delivery is typically referred to as a forward exchange rate or simply a forward rate.

3. Futures Market:

Although the futures market trading is similar to forward market trading in that all transactions are to be settled at a future date, futures markets are actual physical locations where anonymous participants trade standard quantities of foreign currency (e.g., 200,000 EURO per contract) for delivery at standard future dates (e.g., March, June, September, and December).

Up until recently, only banks, hedge funds, and other large institutions have had access to currency trading in the spot market.

With an approximate volume of $2 trillion traded on a daily basis internationally, the individual trader looks for an opportunity to take advantage of the most liquid market in the world.

Day-traders are no longer confined to trading stocks and commodities, and now have the ability to trade all of the major currencies, including US Dollar, Yen, Euro, British Pound, Australian and Canadian Dollars, Swiss Frank and etc, 24 hours a day.

There is considerable exposure to risk in any Forex (FX) transaction.

Before deciding to participate in FX trading, you should carefully consider your objectives, level of experience and risk appetite ...

Foreign Exchange Option Details

Foreign Exchange Option

In finance, a foreign exchange option (commonly shortened to just FX option or currency option) is a derivative financial instrument where the owner has the right but not the obligation to exchange money denominated in one currency into another currency at a pre-agreed exchange rate on a specified date.

The FX options market is the deepest, largest and most liquid market for options of any kind in the world. Most of the FX option volume is traded OTC and is lightly regulated, but a fraction is traded on exchanges like the International Securities Exchange, Philadelphia Stock Exchange, or the Chicago Mercantile Exchange for options on futures contracts. The global market for exchange-traded currency options was notionally valued by the Bank for International Settlements at $158,300 billion in 2005

Example

For example a GBPUSD FX option might be specified by a contract giving the owner the right but not the obligation to sell £1,000,000 and buy $2,000,000 on December 31. In this case the pre-agreed exchange rate, or strike price, is 2.0000 USD per GBP (or 0.5000 GBP per USD) and the notionals are £1,000,000 and $2,000,000.

This type of contract is both a call on dollars and a put on sterling, and is often called a GBPUSD put by market participants, as it is a put on the exchange rate; it could equally be called a USDGBP call, but market convention is quote GBPUSD (USD per GBP).

If the rate is lower than 2.0000 come December 31 (say at 1.9000), meaning that the dollar is stronger and the pound is weaker, then the option will be exercised, allowing the owner to sell GBP at 2.0000 and immediately buy it back in the spot market at 1.9000, making a profit of (2.0000 GBPUSD - 1.9000 GBPUSD)*1,000,000 GBP = 100,000 USD in the process. If they immediately exchange their profit into GBP this amounts to 100,000/1.9000 = 52,631.58 GBP.

Terms

Generally in thinking about options, one assumes that one is buying an asset: for instance, you can have a call option on oil, which allows you to buy oil at a given price. One can consider this situation more symmetrically in FX, where one exchanges: a put on GBPUSD allows one to exchange GBP for USD: it is at once a put on GBP and a call on USD.

As a vivid example: people usually consider that in a fast food restaurant, one buys hamburgers and pays in dollars, but one can instead say that the restaurant buys dollars and pays in hamburgers.
There are a number of subtleties that follow from this symmetry.

Ratio of notionals

The ratio of the notionals in an FX option is the strike, not the current spot or forward. Notably, when constructing an option strategy from FX options, one must be careful to match the foreign currency notionals, not the local currency notionals, else the foreign currencies received and delivered don’t offset and one is left with residual risk.

Non-linear payoff

The payoff for a vanilla option is linear in the underlying, when one denominates the payout in a given numéraire. In the case of an FX option on a rate, one must be careful of which currency is the underlying and which is the numéraire: in the above example, an option on GBPUSD gives a USD value that is linear in GBPUSD (a move from 2.0000 to 1.9000 yields a .10 * $2,000,000 / 2.0000 = $100,000 profit), but has a non-linear GBP value. Conversely, the GBP value is linear in the USDGBP rate, while the USD value is non-linear. This is because inverting a rate has the effect of , which is non-linear.

Change of numéraire
The implied volatility of an FX option depends on the numéraire of the purchaser, again because of the non-linearity of .

Hedging with FX options

Corporations primarily use FX options to hedge uncertain future cash flows in a foreign currency. The general rule is to hedge certain foreign currency cash flows with forwards, and uncertain foreign cash flows with options.

Suppose a United Kingdom manufacturing firm is expecting to be paid US$100,000 for a piece of engineering equipment to be delivered in 90 days. If the GBP strengthens against the US$ over the next 90 days the UK firm will lose money, as it will receive less GBP when the US$100,000 is converted into GBP. However, if the GBP weaken against the US$, then the UK firm will gain additional money: the firm is exposed to FX risk. Assuming that the cash flow is certain, the firm can enter into a forward contract to deliver the US $100,000 in 90 days time, in exchange for GBP at the current forward rate. This forward contract is free, and, presuming the expected cash arrives, exactly matches the firm’s exposure, perfectly hedging their FX risk.

If the cash flow is uncertain, the firm will likely want to use options: if the firm enters a forward FX contract and the expected USD cash is not received, then the forward, instead of hedging, exposes the firm to FX risk in the opposite direction.

Using options, the UK firm can purchase a GBP call/USD put option (the right to sell part or all of their expected income for pounds sterling at a predetermined rate), which will:

protect the GBP value that the firm will receive in 90 day’s time (presuming the cash is received)
cost at most the option premium (unlike a forward, which can have unlimited losses)
yield a profit if the expected cash is not received but FX rates move in its favor

Valuing FX options: The Garman-Kohlhagen model

As in the Black-Scholes model for stock options and the Black model for certain interest rate options, the value of a European option on an FX rate is typically calculated by assuming that the rate follows a log-normal process.

In 1983 Garman and Kohlhagen extended the Black-Scholes model to cope with the presence of two interest rates (one for each currency). Suppose that rd is the risk-free interest rate to expiry of the domestic currency and rf is the foreign currency risk-free interest rate (where domestic currency is the currency in which we obtain the value of the option; the formula also requires that FX rates - both strike and current spot be quoted in terms of “units of domestic currency per unit of foreign currency”). Then the domestic currency value of a call option into the foreign currency is

The value of a put option has value

S0 is the current spot rate
K is the strike price
N is the cumulative normal distribution function
rd is domestic risk free simple interest rate
rf is foreign risk free simple interest rate
T is the time to maturity (calculated according to the appropriate day count convention)
and σ is the volatility of the FX rate.

Risk Management

Garman-Kohlhagen (GK) is the standard model used to calculate the price of an FX option, however there are a wide range of techniques in use for calculating the options risk exposure, or greeks. Although the price produced by every model will agree, the risk numbers calculated by different models can vary significantly depending on the assumptions used for the properties of the spot price movements, volatility surface and interest rate curves.

After GK, the most common models in use are SABR and local volatility, although when agreeing risk numbers with a counterparty (e.g. for exchanging delta, or calculating the strike on a 25 delta option) the Garman-Kohlhagen numbers are always used.

Euro at Critical Crossroads versus US Dollar

Fundamental Outlook for Euro This Week: Bearish

- Euro gains as PMI shows signs of “Second Derivative” Growth Improvement
- German IFO Business Confidence survey improves – Euro rallies
- Euro Bear Trend may nonetheless be in its infancy

The Euro finished the week marginally higher against the US Dollar, but it extremely choppy price action makes it difficult to anticipate continued gains through near term trade. Last week we forecasted that a turnaround in the US S&P 500 and other risky asset classes would lead to a similar pullback in the Euro. Yet an early-week decline quickly reversed and led to a similar bounce in the EUR/USD. The US S&P now stands an impressive 30 percent higher from multi-year lows and a mere 4.1 percent down on a year-to-date basis. The impressive recovery in risk appetite has had a noteworthy effect on the Euro, but we continue to question whether such financial market improvement is truly sustainable. Early-week market tumbles emphasize that equities and other key risk barometers remain extremely fragile, and it may be only a matter of time before we see large corrections in the S&P and major world equity indices.

Our outlook for the Euro/US dollar remains bearish, but the true litmus test may come at resistance near the 1.3400 mark. Said level represents an important multi-week high and the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement of the 1.3750-1.2880 move—a “line in the sand” for technical traders. Fundamental biases are far harder to establish due to the current economic climate. A busy week of European and US economic event risk may only exacerbate this point, and it will be critically important to watch for shifts in trader sentiment following a key number of data releases.

Likely highlights in the week ahead include German and broader Euro zone Consumer Confidence, CPI Inflation, and especially important Employment results. Recent German Ifo Business survey figures suggest that investor confidence has bottomed and many now expect business conditions to improve through the foreseeable future. This may amount to little, however, if Consumer Confidence does not show a commensurate improvement, and markets will likely respond to any surprises in German Gfk survey results. The very next day’s German Consumer Price Index inflation results could likewise spark volatility in the EUR/USD. Analysts predict that yearly price growth remained at a relatively robust 0.8 percent through April. This stands in stark contrast to a -0.1 percent rate in the United States and perhaps explains why the European Central Bank has thus far kept interest rates well-above their US counterpart. Uncertainty surrounding ECB monetary policy may make for especially large moves on big surprises.

Last but certainly not least, markets will pay close attention to Friday’s Unemployment stats out of Germany and the broader Euro zone. Labor market reports remain very politically important, and any especially noteworthy deterioration in jobless rates could put further pressure on domestic governments and the ECB. Though further fiscal stimulus packages seem unlikely, politicians continue to lean on the ECB—calling for Quantitative Easing measures in order to boost money supply. Any such announcement could easily derail the Euro’s recent bounce. - DR

Forex News : Japanese Yen Trades Must Gauge Risk and the Currency’s Relation to It

Currency’s Relation to It

Fundamental Outlook: Bearish

- G7 forecasts a ‘weak’ rebound later this year; though banks’ toxic assets still a serious problem
- Japanese trade balance marks it worst annualized deficit in 29 years
- Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa tells economists not to mistake a temporary rebound as a genuine recovery

There is an ongoing debate as to whether the yen is a sensible safe haven currency considering the financial and economic troubles Japan is suffering. This is argument that will carry over into next week – and just as the market’s tolerance for risk is put to the test through a wave of major fundamental catalysts. Therefore, traders will first have to assess the ever-fluctuating level of sentiment through G20 and IMF policy statements, a mooring US first quarter growth report and ongoing register of market health derived through earnings releases. Then, they will have discern the level of optimism or panic that is borne from this mix and judge whether the Japanese currency is a viable safe haven via the depth of its markets and sheer size of its economy. Anything less than borderline fear or a dour forecast for the markets will likely see the once sacrosanct safe haven / yen correlation drift apart.

First, in taking stock of the economic mines that could leverage panic and volatility; we can see that there is a lot to keep track of. This weekend, the spot light will fall on the various meetings scheduled for the world’s policy makers. The G7 meeting has already passed with little more than cheerleader optimism; and any G20 statement is likely to provide little more. What traders really crave is tangible policy steps with responsibility and consequence along the way that can truly put the world on track to correcting what is clearly a global problem. To the extent of its capabilities, the IMF’s semi-annual meeting will likely produce better results. However, while this group has been very blunt on the current state of affairs and what needs to be done to genuinely turn economic activity around; the organization doesn’t have the clout to push policy onto the world’s leading nations. Moving beyond the weekend, the risk barometer will find input from the change in sentiment derived from earnings. Better-than-expected revenues is not the same thing as profits that are expected to expand as the year progresses. Net profit, write downs, delinquencies and non-performing assets are components that will not be overlooked. Finally, in measuring the health of the financial markets; we first gauge the health of the economy that supports it. The first quarter reading for US GDP will fill this role nicely. Should the world’s largest nation report a slower pace of contraction as expected, it could interpreted as the first (meaningful) step towards a working recovery.

After assessing the ebb and flow of risk sentiment, the fundamental crowd then has to decide whether the yen is indeed the proper currency to represent safety. This leads us to examine the health of the island economy. Over the past few days, Japanese policy officials have painted a grim outlook for economic activity (even taken within the context of a global recession). Despite confirming the worst recession for the world’s second largest economy in over a quarter of a century through the fourth quarter, the Bank of Japan’s top economist predict worse over the opening months of this year. The same sentiment was shared by BoJ Shirakawa. Data is working hard to confirm such fears as well. This past week, the ministry reported the worst annual trade deficit in nearly three decades. This will be followed up by employment, spending, factory activity, and auto sales data in the days ahead. When measuring this economic fodder against sentiment, questions will only arise should pessimism reign. Otherwise, if sentiment is improving, there is no need for a safe haven and the bleak future for Japan means there is really no reason to buy yen. – JK